War in Ukraine to end by the end of this year?

According to Bloomberg, some senior officials in the Kremlin believe the war in Ukraine has reached an impasse, and right now there is no clear end to it. „Ukraine and its allies are increasingly confident that Russia’s invasion is running out of steam as Kyiv stabilises the front line and stalls a spring offensive by Moscow,” the agency reports.

In recent years, the Ukrainian army has become more and more effective against Russia, especially via the usage of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). The targets are not limited to Russian soldiers and equipment stationed in Ukraine. Kyiv regularly performs successful deep strikes on Russian territory, inflicting damage on Russian oil refineries, ports and warehouses. Some of the attacks reach Moscow itself. Bloomberg notes that the increasing number of deployed drones has allowed Ukraine to somewhat compensate for the manpower shortage that has plagued the country pretty much since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion.

Supposedly, criticism of the Russian President is on the rise. The economic crisis and internet restrictions only fuel the increasing war fatigue among Russians. However, any relevant form of civil unrest is yet to be seen. The Russian elite also seems to find the war pointless. According to sources familiar with the situation, some high-ranking Kremlin officials believe that the war has reached a stalemate and that there is no clear path to its resolution.

And thus information surfaces about a possible end of the war. As Bloomberg reports, Putin does want to end the war by the end of this year, but only on terms that would portray Russia as victorious. Those terms include full control over the Donbas and a broader security agreement with Europe that would recognise new territorial gains. The Donbas region is currently the most active part of the front where most of the fighting takes place. While Russian forces are still there, they have been unable to achieve full control of the region for more than a decade now. It must be noted, however, that Ukraine has not reached its strategic goals either. Occupied territories have not been reclaimed, and the long-awaited peace agreement via the Ukraine-U.S.-Russia format has not been reached.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov denied any information regarding such deadlines being imposed by Vladimir Putin. By now, however, there certainly is some kind of pressure demanding the end of the prolonged conflict. Suffering heavy losses on the front, Russia will probably need to announce a new mobilisation sometime within the next 12 months, Nigel Gould-Davies from the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London notes. Frankly, there is no certainty whether the war nears its end. What can be noticed is that the longer it continues, the more successful Ukrainian deep strikes in Russia are. And there is a breaking point to how many needless losses Moscow can take.