East Front News #87: Russia with Iran, US envoy in Minsk

Russia feeds Iran intelligence and tactics

Russia is increasingly transferring both intelligence and battlefield experience to Iran, effectively exporting lessons from the war in Ukraine into a new operational theatre. This includes satellite imagery and detailed data on U.S. and allied military positions, significantly improving Iran’s targeting capabilities and situational awareness. At the same time, Moscow is sharing practical knowledge on drone warfare, including strike coordination, flight patterns, and resistance to electronic warfare, which is already shaping Iranian military operations.

Even more concerning is the transfer of combat experience, which creates a feedback loop of military innovation between the two countries. As Iran adopts Russian tactics—particularly in targeting radar systems and command infrastructure—these methods could eventually be replicated in other regions, including Europe. For NATO, this development highlights the growing threat of more sophisticated drone warfare and underlines the need to strengthen air defence, coordination, and defence-industrial capacity, especially on the Alliance’s eastern flank.

Authors: Karolina Kisiel and Dr. Aleksander Olech

US president’s envoy visits Minsk

The envoy of U.S. President Donald Trump, John Coale, met with Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko in Minsk to discuss bilateral relations and the issue of political prisoners. The talks focused on the functioning of diplomatic relations as well as potential prisoner releases, continuing a format of negotiations that previously resulted in the release of over 120 detainees, including prominent opposition figures and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski.

The dialogue reflects a gradual improvement in U.S.–Belarus relations, contrasting with earlier policies of isolation pursued by Washington and European states. However, the situation remains complex, as Lukashenko’s decisions are closely tied to economic incentives—such as sanctions relief—and Belarus continues to maintain strong political and economic dependence on Russia. This raises questions about the long-term effectiveness of engagement strategies toward Minsk.

Author: Patryk Jagnieża

Will the US put boots on the ground in Iran? Assessing the possibility

Speculation about a potential U.S. ground invasion of Iran has intensified since the beginning of the conflict, but current military realities suggest such a scenario remains unlikely. Iran’s terrain—largely mountainous and favorable to defenders—combined with the scale of forces required, would make any large-scale land operation extremely complex. A full invasion would demand months of visible preparations, including the deployment of heavy armored units and extensive logistical support, none of which are currently observed.

Although the United States possesses the necessary capabilities, particularly within formations like the III Armored Corps, these forces are not positioned in the region. The limited presence of U.S. Marines in the Persian Gulf indicates readiness only for smaller-scale or coastal operations rather than a full invasion. As a result, any potential U.S. military action on Iranian territory would more likely involve special forces or targeted strikes, rather than a sustained ground campaign.

Author: Damian Ratka

U.S. deploys Marines to Iran

The United States is reinforcing its military presence in the Middle East by deploying an amphibious task group centered around the USSTripoli along with the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit. The move, coordinated by CENTCOM and the U.S. Secretary of Defense, comes amid rising tensions in the region and is intended to enhance operational flexibility. The deployed force—numbering around 5,000 personnel—brings capabilities for amphibious operations, securing infrastructure, and supporting both maritime and air missions.

The deployment opens several possible scenarios for the conflict’s development, ranging from stabilization efforts and protection of key infrastructure to more escalatory actions, including limited ground operations. While Marine Expeditionary Units are often used for crisis response and evacuation missions, their presence also enables rapid transition to offensive operations if required. Ultimately, the decision increases U.S. leverage in the region, serving both as a deterrent and as a tool for potential escalation depending on how the situation evolves.

Author: Karolina Kisiel

Norway orders all municipalities to prepare for war, but many are too broke to comply

The Norwegian government has instructed all 357 municipalities to update crisis plans and prepare for a potential armed conflict, reflecting a deteriorating security environment in Europe. Authorities are reviving the concept of total defence, which requires cooperation between military forces, civil administration, and society. Municipalities are expected to secure critical infrastructure, ensure continuity of essential services, and prepare for emergencies such as power outages or population displacement.

However, the directive exposes a major contradiction, as many municipalities are financially struggling and lack the resources to implement these requirements. With rising debt and budgets largely consumed by mandatory spending, local governments face serious limitations in building effective civil defence systems. This raises broader concerns about whether military ambitions can be sustained without strengthening the economic and social foundations necessary to support national defence.

Author: Mateusz Gibała

France builds new aircraft carrier

France has launched its next-generation aircraft carrier programme, with the future vesselFrance Libre set to replace the Charles de Gaulle and enter service around 2038. The ship will be the largest warship ever built in Europe, featuring nuclear propulsion, advanced electromagnetic launch systems, and the capacity to operate a modern air wing of up to 40 aircraft. The project is not only a military investment but also a major industrial initiative, involving hundreds of companies and strengthening the domestic defence sector.

Beyond its technical capabilities, the programme reflects France’s broader strategic ambitions, particularly its push for greater European strategic autonomy. As one of the few countries capable of global power projection, France aims to maintain its ability to conduct large-scale operations independently. The new carrier is therefore both a symbol and a tool of Paris’s long-term effort to remain a leading military power in an increasingly uncertain international environment.

Author: Aleksander Olech

Against the war: why is Spain challenging Trump’s foreign policy?

Spain has taken a distinctly different approach to the conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran, openly opposing military escalation and refusing to support operations lacking a clear basis in international law. The government of Pedro Sánchez not only blocked the use of key U.S. military bases but also framed its stance as part of a broader effort to defend multilateralism and challenge unilateral decision-making. This approach reflects both legal arguments and strong domestic support for an anti-war position.

Madrid’s policy is also shaped by historical experience and long-standing political orientations, including criticism of past interventions such as the Iraq War and a more sympathetic stance toward Arab partners. While Spain’s position has led to tensions with Washington and Israel, it also signals a wider shift within Europe toward cautious distancing from direct military involvement. Although few countries are likely to fully replicate Spain’s approach, its stance highlights growing divisions within the transatlantic alliance and an increasing emphasis on diplomatic solutions over military action.

Author: Natalia Potera

France increases its military presence in the Middle East

France is expanding its military presence in the Middle East, maintaining around 8,000 troops, dozens of Rafale fighter jets, and a significant naval deployment centered on the aircraft carrierCharles de Gaulle. Despite this substantial force, Paris continues to emphasize a defensive posture, focusing on air defence, protection of its assets, and regional stability rather than direct participation in offensive operations against Iran.

At the same time, the growing intensity of operations is exposing structural limitations, including rapidly depleting missile stockpiles and challenges within the defence industry in sustaining prolonged high-intensity engagement. Political considerations and rising operational costs further reinforce France’s cautious approach, as President Macron seeks to balance maintaining influence in the region with avoiding escalation and deeper involvement in the conflict.

Author: Aleksander Olech

Anti-corruption as an element of strategic state resilience

Ukraine has become a key case study showing that anti-corruption is no longer just a governance issue, but a central element of national security and state resilience. Since 2014—and especially after the full-scale invasion in 2022—fighting corruption has evolved into a condition for survival, influencing access to Western support, institutional credibility, and integration with structures such as the EU and NATO. The creation of new anti-corruption institutions reflects an attempt to rebuild trust and strengthen the effectiveness of the state under extreme pressure.

At the same time, the Ukrainian experience highlights ongoing tensions between transparency and wartime realities. While reforms have accelerated under pressure, risks of misuse and the gap between political messaging and real change remain significant. Nevertheless, the broader conclusion is clear: without accountability, oversight, and effective institutions, even strong military capabilities may prove insufficient. Anti-corruption has therefore become a pillar of long-term stability, defence effectiveness, and strategic resilience.

Author: Andrzej Fałkowski

Is Russia becoming the biggest winner of the war in the Middle East?

Recent U.S. decisions to ease certain restrictions on Russian oil exports have created conditions that may indirectly benefit Moscow, particularly amid rising global energy prices. By allowing the sale of oil already in transit, Washington aimed to stabilize markets, but the move also boosted Russian revenues and signaled potential cracks in the sanctions regime. As oil prices fluctuate due to the Middle East conflict, Russia is increasingly positioned to capitalize on market instability and maintain significant income from energy exports.

At the same time, the broader geopolitical situation suggests that prolonged instability in the Middle East may work in Russia’s favor. Higher energy prices, shifting trade patterns, and limited prospects for a quick resolution of the conflict all contribute to strengthening Moscow’s position. Combined with cautious signals of a potential thaw in relations with the United States, these dynamics raise concerns that Russia could emerge as one of the key beneficiaries of the ongoing crisis.

Author: Amelia Wojciechowska

The strategic importance of SAMP/T: the Ukraine war and Transatlantic competition

The war in Ukraine has become a testing ground for modern air defence systems, exposing the complexity of countering combined drone and missile attacks. In this environment, systems such as SAMP/T and Patriot play a critical role in protecting key infrastructure and urban areas, particularly against high-speed ballistic threats. While both systems have demonstrated effectiveness, Ukraine’s experience shows that the main challenge lies not only in capability but also in scale, as limited numbers of interceptors and systems leave gaps in coverage during saturation attacks.

At the same time, the rivalry between SAMP/T and Patriot reflects a broader transatlantic competition shaped by political, industrial, and strategic factors rather than purely technical performance. While the European SAMP/T offers flexibility and modernization potential, the American Patriot benefits from wider deployment, stronger integration within NATO, and larger production capacity. This competition highlights deeper divisions within Europe over defence autonomy, as countries weigh the benefits of European solutions against long-standing reliance on U.S. systems.

Author: Emma Dupuy