A short, intense war with Iran? The United States was supposed to warn Arab countries

The Wall Street Journal reported on the warnings conveyed through diplomatic and military channels, citing people familiar with the discussions. It was not disclosed which states received such information. The campaign under consideration would be short and intensive, aimed at weakening Iran’s capabilities and compelling its authorities to negotiate. Strikes could target Iranian infrastructure and facilities related to the nuclear programme.

Preparations for a potential operation are accompanied by measures intended to limit the exposure of American forces to Iranian retaliation. According to the reported findings, the military is bringing in Patriot air defence systems from Texas and moving troops from bases particularly at risk of attack. Simultaneously, ammunition stocks are being replenished, while bomber and fighter aircraft are reportedly preparing for strikes.

In November, another carrier strike group and a Marine expeditionary unit are to join the American forces operating in the Middle East. However, their arrival does not necessarily imply a permanent increase in military presence, as some of the vessels deployed in the region may conclude their missions as part of a rotation at the same time. These preparations are designed to provide Donald Trump with a choice of various options for the use of force.

The White House did not provide a comment regarding the planning of a military operation. In a brief response to journalists’ questions, it stated that the President is considering all possibilities to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons. Simultaneously, mediators from regional states are seeking to resume negotiations. Although their efforts have not yet yielded a breakthrough, an agreement with Tehran remains a considered alternative to another military campaign.

An important reference point remains the US Congressional midterm elections, scheduled for 3 November. Trump declared on 8 October that the United States would not attack Iran until the vote. His advisors had already sought to limit escalation before the elections, leaving open the possibility of increasing the scale of actions once they concluded. The presidential announcement thus established a period of restraint from further strikes but did not determine whether, or under what circumstances, they might be resumed. Military preparations indicate that such a scenario is being considered.