Approaching the 5th year of the Russo-Ukrainian war

Figures and Estimates

According to estimates by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the number of Ukrainian refugees stands at nearly 6 million. In addition, 3.7 million Ukrainians were internally displaced and forced to move to other parts of the country.

Both sides of the conflict employ mercenaries and volunteers alongside their regular forces. The Ukrainian side has released data suggesting that approximately 600 foreign volunteers sign contracts each month. The total number of foreign volunteers who have served or are still serving in units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine exceeds 10,000. For the Russian side, no monthly average data is available. However, it was recently reported that Russia recruited over 1,000 Kenyans to fight in Ukraine.

The World Bank, in cooperation with the Government of Ukraine, the European Commission, and the United Nations, prepared a report on the war’s impact on the economy and infrastructure. It concludes that rebuilding Ukraine will require approximately$588 billion over the next ten years. The most affected sectors are housing, transportation, and energy.

Aid and Corruption

Power in Ukraine is currently concentrated in the hands of the presidential camp and the military. Due to the ongoing war, it is not possible to safely conduct presidential elections or the preceding campaign. Volodymyr Zelensky has been ruling Ukraine for nearly seven years—two years beyond the formal expiration of his mandate. As the war drags on, widespread corruption and arbitrariness have taken root in Ukraine. Particularly damaging to the Ukrainian cause is corruption at the highest levels of government. One example is Andriy Yermak, the former head of the Presidential Office, who was implicated in a scandal in which government officials allegedly received more than $112 million in bribes from contractors working with the state-owned nuclear power operator Energoatom. Corruption remains a serious concern for Western countries, without whose support Ukraine would be unable to continue the war.

Ukrainian political scientist Yevhen Mahda accuses the Ukrainian administration of mishandling Western aid. In his words, “He (Zelensky) showed us and the world that Ukraine exists and fights. But later he assumed that Ukraine was entitled to unconditional assistance from its partners. Our establishment failed to understand that to receive support, one must offer something in return.” Such an attitude fuels anti-Ukrainian sentiment and benefits Russian trolls.

Lack of Unity in the West

On the upcoming anniversary of Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, a 20th sanctions package against the Russian Federation was planned. At present, however, the ultimatum issued by Hungary and Slovakia prevents its adoption. The Hungarian side demands the resumption of Russian oil transport through the Druzhba pipeline to Hungary. Both Slovakia and Hungary were forced to release their strategic oil reserves; moreover, they have suspended diesel fuel deliveries to Ukraine and threatened to halt electricity and gas transmission. Hungary has also threatened to block the€90 billion EU loan to Ukraine until oil transit is resumed.

There is also a recurring discussion of whether Ukraine should join the ranks of the EU and NATO. There is no unity in the West in that regard either.

Peace Negotiations

Another round of negotiations in the Ukraine–USA–Russia format has been announced for around February 27. The parties are currently preparing for the talks. The Ukrainian side has raised the possibility of a meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin. The Russian side has not yet responded. Another prisoner exchange is also being planned. The negotiating parties have not reached an agreement on the key issues. “We still do not see any willingness on Russia’s part to end the war or take serious steps toward peace,” wrote Andrii Sybiha, Ukraine’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, on his X profile.