Iran has a new leader, and oil prices have exceeded the symbolic barrier

Mojtaba Khamenei had long been considered one of the main contenders to succeed his father. He was chosen on Sunday, March 8, by Iran’s Assembly of Experts. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has already pledged allegiance to the new Supreme Leader. Hezbollah leaders, Yemen’s Houthi rebels, and Iraqi militias have followed suit.

The younger Khamenei was born in 1969 in Mashhad and was the second son of Ali Khamenei. In the 1980s, he fought as a volunteer in the Iran–Iraq War within IRGC units. He established close ties with senior commanders of the Corps, which helped expand his political influence. He was said to have played a key role in his father’s office as the main intermediary in state affairs and was often described as more radical than Ali Khamenei.

Mojtaba Khamenei’s powers include, among others, command of the armed forces—including the IRGC—the appointment of top state officials, and the authority to declare war and peace. He holds ultimate influence over foreign policy, national security, and key state decisions, wielding greater power than the president. The Supreme Leader can be dismissed by the Assembly of Experts, the same body that appoints him. However, such a situation has never occurred, as previous Supreme Leaders have ruled Iran until their deaths.

US President Donald Trump declared, even before the new Supreme Leader’s name was announced, that “he will not last long if he doesn’t have Washington’s support.” Israel, meanwhile, stated that the new Iranian leader—regardless of who it would be—would become a target for the IDF.

On Sunday, the price of US West Texas Intermediate crude oil surpassed the symbolic threshold of $100 per barrel. It was the first such price since March 2022, when the market reacted to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Brent crude crossed the same mark. During Monday’s session on Asian markets, sharp declines were observed. Indexes in Tokyo and Seoul dropped by several percent, while oil prices surged by about 30 percent. In some cases, prices reached as high as $118 per barrel.

Donald Trump announced that he would not accept Mojtaba Khamenei as the new leader. The new Supreme Leader is facing the strongest armies and intelligence services in the world. There is a real possibility that the young Khamenei will not survive the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the Assembly of Experts can only elect so many new Supreme Leaders. However, the rising oil prices could hinder the US war effort. If we were to face a real oil crisis, pressure on Donald Trump’s administration would commence. For now, we can observe some European leaders persuading Iran to stop attacking other Gulf countries. French President Emmanuel Macron has called Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and urged an immediate halt to regional strikes and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz for free navigation.