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New US base in Poland. Beyond Trump’s presidency
The outcome of the US midterm elections should not be regarded as the end of discussions over a new, large American military base in Poland. This remains a long-term project, still at the stage of negotiations and political consultations. Even if a decision were taken during Donald Trump’s presidency, construction and preparations could take several years, meaning the facility might only become operational after he leaves office.
Importantly, the proposed base must be distinguished from the existing American military presence in Poland, which includes both permanently stationed personnel and rotational forces. Under Joe Biden, US troop numbers increased following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, while a permanent US Army garrison was established in Poland in 2023.
However, Democratic control of Congress does not automatically guarantee additional troops or the abandonment of plans for a new base. A major installation, similar in scale to the previously discussed Fort Trump concept, would require sustained political and financial support over several years.
Another important factor is Washington’s changing approach towards Moscow and Minsk. The proposed base would not be located directly along Poland’s borders with Russia, Belarus or Ukraine, but rather in the western part of the country. Its future will depend not only on American domestic politics, but also on the security situation in Eastern Europe and Washington’s assessment of the Russian threat.
For Poland, a reduction in American military involvement in the Middle East could be particularly beneficial, potentially allowing Washington to devote more resources and attention to Eastern Europe, including support for Ukraine. Nevertheless, such a shift cannot be taken for granted simply because Democrats have gained control of Congress. Equally, the Indo-Pacific will remain a major American priority, as demonstrated during the Biden administration, while Democrats will continue developing their own approaches towards Asia and Latin America.
Poland should therefore continue discussions with Washington without treating the proposed base as a project dependent on one president or one election. Political leaders, military officials and experts must maintain contacts with both parties and successive US administrations.
The objective is not simply to secure another American installation, but to ensure that the United States remains militarily committed to Poland and NATO’s eastern flank long after Donald Trump leaves the White House.
