East Front News #119: Belarusian KGB recruits in Polish cities and black month for Russian military aviation

Belarusian KGB recruits in Polish cities. From occupation leaflets to reconnaissance of military facilities

Belarusian intelligence is reportedly recruiting Belarusians living in Poland, beginning with simple tasks such as distributing provocative leaflets in Warsaw and Poznań. Recruits can then be moved towards photographing military facilities and critical infrastructure.

The mechanism mirrors methods already used by Russian and Belarusian services: small payments and apparently harmless assignments are used to test recruits before they are drawn into reconnaissance, subversion or sabotage.

Author: Aleksander Olech

Will NATO strike deep into Russia? Specific targets have been pointed out

NATO’s latest defence planning reportedly assumes that the Alliance would not merely stop a Russian offensive at its borders. After containing an attack, Allied forces could strike military and logistical targets deep inside Russia.

Potential targets include military bases, airfields, arms factories and infrastructure supporting Russian forces. Tomahawk, ATACMS, Storm Shadow and Taurus missiles are among the weapons discussed for strikes ranging from around 150 kilometres to several thousand kilometres inside Russia.

Author: Mateusz Saweczko

Reports of faulty K2 tanks: What went wrong? How Defence24 got it right

Reports suggesting that dozens of Poland’s K2 tanks were out of service created significant controversy. Defence24’s subsequent verification showed that fewer than ten vehicles are currently undergoing repairs or routine maintenance.

With more than 200 K2 tanks already in Polish service, availability therefore exceeds 95 per cent. The case shows how an unverified claim concerning one brigade developed into an international narrative about alleged problems with Poland’s Korean tanks.

Author: Jakub Palowski

Ukraine strikes Rosneft and Wildberries. Sixth refinery on fire

Ukrainian drones struck the large Rosneft refinery in Ryazan as well as a Wildberries logistics centre. The refinery is already the sixth Russian facility of this kind attacked by Ukraine within a week.

Kyiv has resumed attacks against Russia’s energy sector after a short pause. The campaign aims to impose economic costs on Moscow and disrupt infrastructure directly supporting the Russian war effort.

Author: Michał Górski

Russian media paint Poland as the aggressor. A scenario similar to Ukraine?

Russian media are portraying increased Polish security measures along the Kaliningrad border as preparations for an alleged Polish provocation or even an attack against Russia.

The narrative resembles Russian information operations used before the invasion of Ukraine, when Moscow attempted to reverse the roles of aggressor and victim. This does not mean an attack on NATO is imminent, but the propaganda mechanism is strikingly similar.

Author: Mateusz Saweczko

A black month for Russian military aviation: Losses approach record levels

Russia lost 11 military aircraft and two helicopters during October, making it one of the worst months for Russian military aviation since the beginning of the full-scale invasion.

The losses included modern Su-57, Su-35, Su-30 and Su-34 aircraft. With Russian industry producing only around 20–30 new combat aircraft annually, losses at this rate would become increasingly difficult to replace.

Author: Maciej Szopa

New US base in Poland. Beyond Trump's presidency

Plans for a new large American military base in Poland should not be treated as a project dependent solely on Donald Trump. Negotiations and preparations would take years, meaning any new installation could become operational under a future US administration.

For Warsaw, the real objective is therefore broader: maintaining a durable American military commitment to Poland and NATO’s eastern flank regardless of changes in the White House or Congress.

Author: Aleksander Olech

Finland is building its own space command. It will take control of three radar satellites

Finland is establishing a military Space Operations Centre at Tikkakoski. It will coordinate military space activities, monitor orbital threats and cooperate with NATO.

A particularly important capability will be direct Finnish military control over three ICEYE radar satellites. Their SAR sensors can observe targets at night and through cloud cover, giving Finland an independent reconnaissance capability particularly valuable along its border with Russia.

Author: Mateusz Gibała

Russia offers 2% mortgages in occupied Ukraine. Moscow's demographic weapon

Russia is offering extremely favourable mortgages in occupied areas of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, including loans with interest rates as low as two per cent.

The programme is more than housing policy. Moscow is using financial incentives, Russian institutions and population movements to deepen the integration of occupied Ukrainian territories and make their potential future reintegration significantly more difficult.

Author: Agnieszka Rogozińska

South Korea and Türkiye. Two defence powers join forces

South Korea and Türkiye want to expand defence-industrial cooperation beyond their existing work on tanks, artillery and aviation. Both countries are increasingly important global arms exporters and are looking at joint production, technology transfers and exports to third markets.

Their cooperation already covers the Altay tank, T-155 Fırtına artillery and HÜRJET components, while naval cooperation is also developing. Closer ties between two increasingly capable defence industries could eventually produce new missiles, drones or other jointly developed systems.

Author: Aleksander Olech

Americans accelerate submarine production: Anduril partners with the US government

The US is developing a new shipyard in Baltimore to produce components for Virginia-class nuclear-powered submarines. The Arsenal-2 project is expected to cost around $6.6 billion, with Anduril providing $3.7 billion and the US government another $2.9 billion.

The investment is also important for AUKUS. Increasing American submarine production capacity could reduce the risk of delays in delivering Virginia-class submarines to Australia in the 2030s.

Author: Michał Górski

Toughbooks in northern European armed forces. Why does the military use rugged computers?

Modern armed forces increasingly depend on computers and tablets for digital maps, command systems, communications and access to battlefield information. Denmark has already deployed several hundred Panasonic Toughbook tablets as part of its military command architecture.

The key advantage is not simply computing power but reliability in harsh environments. Military devices must survive vibration, dust, moisture and extreme temperatures while remaining usable inside vehicles and in the field.

Author: Mateusz Gibała

The art of conversation in hostage crises: How Poland's negotiator saves lives

Polish government negotiator Jakub Głowaczewski describes missions involving kidnapped or imprisoned Polish citizens in Africa and the Middle East, including cases involving al-Qaeda, ISIS-linked groups and authoritarian security services.

One case required a Chadian military unit to pursue kidnappers into the south of the country and conduct a kinetic rescue operation. Głowaczewski also explains how personal relationships with presidents, intelligence chiefs and local intermediaries can determine whether a hostage returns home.

Author: Julia Zalewska-Biziuk

Drones, AI and troops in New Delhi: How India tests its security apparatus on protests

Youth-led protests in New Delhi have become a test of India’s increasingly technologically advanced internal security system. Police, paramilitary forces and troops have been supported by drones, CCTV networks and facial-recognition tools.

The deployment demonstrates how artificial intelligence and unmanned systems are increasingly being incorporated into domestic security operations. At the same time, diverting substantial forces towards internal unrest can reduce resources available for higher-priority security challenges along India’s borders.

Author: Maciej Kolasa