Europol and the new terrorism algorithm

The importance of this issue is evidenced by both subsequent attacks and various expert analyses. In the case of the European Union, its latest reflection is the recently published Europol report (TE-SAT: European Union Terrorism Situation and Trend Report 2026), prepared using data from 2025.

Revolution – terror – terrorism

The report was released on a significant day – 14 July, which marks the anniversary not only of the start of the French Revolution in 1789 but also of the bloody terrorist attack in Nice in 2016, in which over 80 people died and more than 450 were injured. Today, France is once again at the epicentre of European terror and terrorism, as Europol recorded the highest number of attacks (14) in this country in 2025. In total, there were 45 attacks across the European Union, affecting 10 countries – particularly Italy (11), Austria (7), and Germany (4). More than half of them (24) were jihadist in nature. In this category as well, France ranked first (10 attacks). Additionally, the report identified 12 left-wing and anarchist attacks, 5 right-wing attacks, and 4 cases classified as other or unspecified manifestations of terrorism. It is noteworthy that no attacks related to ethno-nationalist and separatist activities were registered in the past year.

The pendulum of the terrorist threat

The problem of escalating terrorism in the EU in recent years resembles the movement of a pendulum. For example, 28 attacks were recorded in 2022. In 2023, there were as many as 120; in 2024, 58; and a year later, 45. A point of emphasis in 2025 is the correlation between the number of completed attacks (22) and foiled ones (20). Furthermore, the summary includes 3 failed attacks. In total, these resulted in 6 deaths and 81 injuries. In Europol reports, the phenomenon of terrorism is examined not only by the number of attacks but also by other criteria, including the rate of individuals arrested for terrorist activities or relevant court proceedings.

In 2025, the number of concluded court proceedings for terrorist offences increased – from 485 in 2024 to 505 a year later – although fewer convictions were recorded. Last year, 486 people were arrested in the EU for terrorist activities (compared to 449 the previous year). 71% of these were related to jihadist terrorism. In this category, arrests were made in 16 member states, the highest numbers being in Spain (100) and France (64). In Poland, there were 2 people arrested. Furthermore, 43 people were arrested on charges of right-wing terrorism (4 in Poland), 13 for left-wing and anarchist terrorism, 34 for ethno-nationalist and separatist terrorism, and 49 for other and unspecified forms of terrorism (3 in Poland). The age of those arrested is also noteworthy. The average age was 27, with over one hundred individuals aged 18 or younger. The youngest person detained was 12 years old, while the oldest was 79.

Europol’s shortcomings and the need for a new algorithm

Europol has been preparing reports using a similar formula for years. This has both advantages and disadvantages. On one hand, it provides a consistent arrangement of specific information and the possibility of long-term comparison. On the other hand, the adopted solutions do not show the full spectrum of the threat. Hence, there is a need to account for the continuous evolution of terrorism, which resembles a changing algorithm. For instance, the Europol report excessively marginalises manifestations of state terrorism, including the links between terrorism, secret services, and criminal groups. This has been highlighted by the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT) and the GLOBSEC think tank, which published a report in February 2026 regarding Russia’s “crime-terrorist links” in Europe. The collected data shows that from the start of the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 until mid-February 2026, 151 such threats were recorded. This is 41 cases more than in the period from February 2022 to September 2025, when the previous edition of the report was published. The number of identified perpetrators also increased from 131 to 172 individuals. According to the report, the most threatened country was Poland (31 incidents), followed by France (20), and Lithuania and Germany (15 each). The scope of Russian hybrid activities covers a wide range of actions, from online propaganda and incitement to hatred to arson, and finally to assassinations or attempted bombings.

AI Terrorism

In its latest report, Europol also devoted too little attention to the further evolution of terrorism, including the use of artificial intelligence, quantum computers, or other technological innovations. The scope and significance of the first of these threats have been highlighted, for example, by experts from the Cambridge Programme on AI Science & Policy, who provided direct evidence showing that terrorists have learned to regularly use tools such as ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, or Grok. One example is Boko Haram militants, who actively utilise large language models for tasks such as planning military operations, maintaining weapons, and designing bombs.

Bioterrorism

Another threat overlooked by Europol is the use of chemical or biological agents. Particular attention should be paid to the latter. In this context, it is worth quoting the Director General of Moderna, a biotechnology company specialising in the development of modern medicines and vaccines (including those against COVID-19). Stéphane Bancel stated in June 2026: “I am very afraid of bioterrorism. Today, one can develop a virus very cheaply in a garage and spread it in Europe. This applies to individuals and radical groups, but it can also be inspired (e.g., as part of hybrid warfare) by hostile states.”

The use of AI or bioterrorism, much like the increasingly strong links between terrorists and the special services of hostile states or criminal groups, is just a selected example indicating the necessity for Europol to develop a new formula for analysing the problem of terrorism. It must account for an evolution that resembles a changing algorithm. Otherwise, we will not only lose a comprehensive picture of the threat but also any real possibility of combating it.

Prof. Sebastian Wojciechowski – Zakład Studiów Strategicznych i Bezpieczeństwa Międzynarodowego (Department of Strategic Studies and International Security) at Adam Mickiewicz University (UAM). Chief Analyst at the Institute for Western Affairs. NATO DEEP eAcademy and OSCE security expert. Editor-in-Chief of “Strategic Review” (Przegląd Strategiczny). His recent publications include: The Evolution and Escalation of the Hybrid Terrorist Threat in the European Union and Terrorism in Western and Central Europe: Good News is Bad News, as well as NATO Summit in Ankara: Relief and a Sense of Unfulfilled Expectations.