Terrorism in Western and Central Europe. Good news is bad news

In this regard, Western and Central Europe ranks just behind North and Central America. Last year, the region recorded 14 deaths and 51 terrorism-related incidents, compared to 25 deaths and 81 incidents the year before. This marks the first improvement in four years in this part of the world. Moreover, among the 33 countries classified by the report’s authors as belonging to this region, only five saw an escalation of the problem—France, the United Kingdom, Austria, the Netherlands, and Serbia.

Germany has remained the European leader in terrorist threat levels for several years, currently ranking 29th globally. Other countries from the region appearing in the top fifty include France (35), the United Kingdom (38), Greece (40), the Czech Republic (45), Sweden (46), and Poland (48). Germany also recorded the highest number of terrorism-related fatalities last year—six deaths in five attacks. The deadliest incident occurred in Munich in February 2025, when an assailant drove a car into a demonstration, killing two people and injuring 43. Since 2011, Germany has recorded a total of 221 attacks and 53 fatalities.

France and the United Kingdom were the only other countries in the region, besides Germany, to record two or more terrorism-related deaths in 2025. In the UK, two people were killed in an attack on a synagogue. In France, there were 12 attacks resulting in four deaths—the highest number of attacks and fatalities since 2020. Greece ranked 40th globally, dropping five places, while the Czech Republic saw the greatest improvement in the region, falling six places. The Czech Republic has not recorded any terrorist attacks since the 2023 shooting that left 17 dead and 23 injured. Poland, in contrast to Sweden (which rose four places), also recorded a lower threat level, dropping two positions.

The decline in terrorist threat levels is part of a broader trend observed in many parts of the world, including the Middle East and North Africa, where between 2024 and 2025 the threat decreased by 15%, reaching its lowest level since 2011. Globally, this trend was observed in 81 countries, while the opposite occurred in 19. Overall, the number of terrorist incidents worldwide fell by 22% last year, and the number of deaths by 28%. Europol also highlighted this trend in its latest report, noting that the total number of attacks in the European Union dropped sharply from 120 in 2023 to 58 in 2024.

The End of Good News

However, that is where the good news ends. As is often the case, “good news is bad news.” Terrorism is not in retreat in all respects, as evidenced by a dramatic 280% increase in the number of victims in countries described by the report’s authors as “the West.” This escalation primarily concerns the United States and Australia. Another alarming trend is the significant shortening of the radicalisation process among potential future terrorists. In 2005, this process took an average of 18 months; by 2016, it had dropped to 13 months. Today, radicalisation often occurs within a matter of weeks. The age of individuals involved in terrorist activities has also decreased significantly. For example, in 2024, of the 449 people arrested in the European Union on terrorism-related charges, 133 were between 12 and 20 years old—over 29% of all cases. The youngest was just 12 years old.

A renewed escalation of terrorist threats, including in Western and Central Europe, could occur rapidly—not only due to ISIS or al-Qaeda but also because of states that support or engage in terrorism and their affiliated groups. Rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz could further trigger Iranian retaliatory actions in Europe, carried out through Hamas, Hezbollah, or other networks. As early as 2024, the Dutch intelligence service warned of this threat, pointing to increasingly close ties between Iranian intelligence and various terrorist and criminal organisations. Their targets include acts of violence against journalists, politicians, members of Jewish communities, and Iranian and Kurdish dissidents. This issue has also been repeatedly emphasised by Bartjan Wegter, the European Union Counter-Terrorism Coordinator. A particularly concerning example is Hezbollah, which maintains an extensive network in Europe for logistical, financial, and training purposes. It is involved not only in transferring funds, weapons, and narcotics but also in carrying out terrorist operations. Examples include the 2012 bombing at Burgas Airport, the 2015 arrests in Cyprus and London of members stockpiling large quantities of ammonium nitrate, and the 2021 conviction in Belgium of a former Iranian diplomat for his role in planning a bombing in France. Since February 28, 2026—when Iran was attacked by the United States and Israel—Europol has recorded a surge of Iran-inspired attacks in Europe, primarily targeting Jewish sites in Belgium, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom.

According to experts from the International Centre for Counter-Terrorism (ICCT), since 1979 there have been 218 identified Iranian hybrid operations—including assassinations, kidnappings, intimidation, and surveillance—102 of which occurred in Europe. Another serious and related threat stems from Russian connections with criminal and terrorist organisations. From the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine until February 2026, at least 151 confirmed hybrid incidents were identified within EU member states. The actual number is likely much higher, as identifying perpetrators is often difficult (German intelligence alone recorded 320 suspected sabotage attempts in 2025).

The problem of terrorism in Western and Central Europe “has many faces,” meaning it can stem from a wide range of motives—religious, political, social, or individual. Terrorism today is characterised, on one hand, by the use of modern technologies such as cyberattacks, social media, messaging apps, artificial intelligence, and 3D printing, and on the other, by the use of simple, easily accessible tools—such as a speeding car or a knife, which is increasingly becoming a weapon of aggression. This is vividly illustrated by the example of Berlin, where in 2024 alone, police recorded over 3,000 such incidents—nearly 10 per day.

Sebastian Wojciechowski – Head of the Department of Strategic and International Security Studies at the Faculty of Political Science and Journalism, Adam Mickiewicz University in Poznań. Chief Analyst at the Institute for Western Affairs in Poznań. Expert for the OSCE and NATO DEEP eAcademy on internal and international security. Editor-in-chief ofStrategic Review. Recently published“The Evolution and Escalation of the Hybrid Terrorist Threat in the European Union” and“From Disinformation to Espionage – Russia’s Hybrid Actions Against Poland.”