East Front News #112: Estonia wants to join France's nuclear deterrence and Rafale training for Ukraine

"Warsaw will disappear in two or three days"

Nikolai Patrushev, former secretary of Russia’s Security Council and an adviser to Vladimir Putin, threatened Poland with the use of Russia’s full military potential in the event of an armed conflict.

His comments were made in response to Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski’s assessment that NATO would have a significant conventional advantage if Russia attacked the Alliance.

Author: Bartłomiej Wypartowicz

Estonia wants to join France's nuclear deterrence. The limits are obvious

Estonia has confirmed that it is discussing participation in France’s Forward Deterrence initiative. Tallinn sees closer nuclear dialogue with Paris as another potential layer of deterrence against Russia.

Estonia’s limited air capabilities mean its role would initially be political and consultative rather than directly connected with French nuclear-capable aircraft. Participation could include strategic dialogue, planning and observer status during exercises.

Author: Aleksander Olech

AWACS and Rivet Joint above Poland

A NATO E-3A Sentry AWACS and a British RC-135W Rivet Joint operated over Poland on 16 September. The two aircraft perform different but complementary surveillance and intelligence functions.

The Rivet Joint flew close to NATO’s eastern border and continued towards Lithuania and Finland, while the AWACS monitored Polish airspace. Their simultaneous presence came amid heightened Russian and Belarusian military activity in the region.

Author: Mateusz Saweczko, Patryk Jagnieża

Second Polish F-35A completes maiden flight in Italy

The second Polish F-35A produced at the Cameri facility in Italy has completed its maiden flight. The aircraft, tail number 3518, is expected to be delivered to the Polish Air Force.

Eighteen Polish F-35As have now completed their first flights, and Poland is expected to have that number of aircraft in the country by the end of 2026. The current order covers 32 fighters.

Author: Michał Górski

Nordic countries prepare supply chains for war

Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Iceland are expanding cooperation on security of supply to guarantee access to essential goods and services during crises and war.

The initiative covers production, logistics, distribution and trade. Nordic governments increasingly treat fuel, food, transport, spare parts and functioning supply chains as integral elements of national and military defence.

Author: Aleksander Olech

Rafale for Ukraine is still a long way off

France wants to begin initial Rafale training for Ukrainian pilots and is simultaneously working to integrate the AASM Hammer weapon with Gripen aircraft. The initiatives indicate long-term French involvement in rebuilding Ukraine’s air force.

A Ukrainian Rafale capability would nevertheless require extensive pilot and ground-crew training, maintenance infrastructure, spare parts and a permanent logistics chain. It should therefore be treated as a long-term programme rather than an immediate wartime delivery.

Author: Aleksander Olech

Russia's veto exposed the UN's weakest point

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exposed a fundamental weakness of the United Nations system: a permanent member of the Security Council can wage war while retaining the ability to veto decisions concerning its own actions.

At the same time, UN humanitarian agencies remain important in providing assistance and supporting mediation. The war therefore illustrates the contrast between the organisation’s political limitations and its continuing humanitarian role.

Author: Agnieszka Rogozińska

The Houthis' September offensive: The limits of Saudi deterrence

Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia and advances along Yemen’s western coast are increasing military and economic pressure on Riyadh. Saudi Arabia must simultaneously protect its territory, energy infrastructure and maritime exports.

The conflict also demonstrates the political difficulties facing the anti-Houthi camp in Yemen. Any lasting Saudi response depends not only on air power but also on cooperation between Yemeni forces and external partners.

Author: Patryk Radke

MQ-9 Reaper retired? The US Air Force is focusing on new projects

The US Air Force is preparing a major expansion of advanced unmanned combat aircraft, including hundreds of Collaborative Combat Aircraft designed to operate alongside manned fighters.

Washington also intends to introduce large numbers of cheaper Massed Modular Aircraft. These programmes may gradually reduce the role of the MQ-9 Reaper as the US military shifts towards more survivable and expendable unmanned platforms.

Author: Michał Górski

Russian General Anton Grunis confirmed dead in Ukraine

Russian Major General Anton Grunis, commander of the 4th Separate Motorised Rifle Brigade, has been confirmed dead. His unit participated in major battles in eastern Ukraine, including around Bakhmut and Kostiantynivka.

Grunis had recently received the title Hero of the Russian Federation. The exact circumstances and timing of his death have not been officially disclosed.

Author: Bartłomiej Wypartowicz

The geo-economic and strategic dimension of Xi Jinping's visit to Egypt

Xi Jinping’s visit to Cairo highlighted the growing political, economic and strategic importance of relations between China and Egypt. The meeting also marked 70 years of diplomatic relations between the two countries.

Egypt increasingly views cooperation with China as part of a wider effort to diversify its international partnerships, while Beijing sees Cairo as an important political and economic partner connecting Africa, the Middle East and the Mediterranean.

Author: Maciej Kolasa

Canadian Prime Minister responds to EU's plans

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has welcomed European Union proposals to deepen relations with Canada, including the possibility of establishing a new form of associate membership.

Ottawa and Brussels are already linked by the CETA trade agreement, but both sides are now exploring broader political and strategic cooperation at a time of major changes in the transatlantic relationship.

Author: Patryk Jagnieża

BRICS summit in New Delhi: A display of unity and a showcase for India

India used its BRICS presidency and the New Delhi summit to demonstrate its growing international position. Despite differences among member states, the organisation succeeded in adopting a joint declaration.

The summit also allowed New Delhi to present itself as an increasingly important diplomatic centre capable of maintaining relations with countries that often have competing strategic interests.

Author: Adam Burakowski

The International Space Summit: A leap for Europe, but not for the world

The International Space Summit in Paris demonstrated Europe’s growing ambition to strengthen its autonomy in the space sector and reduce strategic technological dependencies.

The meeting also illustrated the limits of Europe’s ability to transform its regional priorities into a genuinely global agenda. French summit diplomacy remains influential within Europe, but broader international engagement was more limited.

Author: Kacper Kremiec

Capital returns to Syria: Reconstruction as an arena of competition and a potential opportunity for Poland

Foreign companies and governments are increasingly positioning themselves for Syria’s reconstruction despite continuing political and security risks. France and Gulf states are already seeking positions in infrastructure, ports and other strategic sectors.

Reconstruction will also shape future transport corridors and regional influence. Poland may have opportunities in the Syrian market, but entering only after other states have secured the most important projects could significantly reduce its room for manoeuvre.

Author: Patryk Radke