East Front News #109: CIA Director visits Moscow

Russia will attack in the Baltic. Europe is planning how to manage without the US

European defence planning is increasingly taking into account a scenario in which the continent would have to defend itself with little or no direct US military involvement. The Baltic Sea region would be one of the most demanding theatres in such a confrontation.

France and other European countries are therefore considering how European forces could assume greater responsibility for deterrence and defence against Russia. The debate reflects growing uncertainty over the long-term scale of American involvement in Europe.

Author: Aleksander Olech

What the CIA Director brought to Moscow

CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s high-profile visit to Moscow may have concerned Ukraine, US intelligence support for Kyiv, European security and the risk of escalation between Russia and NATO.

Direct contacts between intelligence chiefs can serve as an important communication channel during international crises. The unusual visibility of the visit suggests that Washington also intended to send a broader political and security signal.

Author: Jacek Marcin Raubo, Aleksander Olech

Is Saudi Arabia distancing itself from the US? The post-American Middle East begins

Saudi Arabia is gradually moving away from strict dependence on American security guarantees and towards a model of multidimensional strategic autonomy. Riyadh is developing overlapping relationships with the US, Türkiye, Pakistan and other regional actors.

The change does not mean the disappearance of American influence, but it does indicate the end of Washington’s monopoly over the regional security order. China is simultaneously becoming an increasingly important economic and political partner for Gulf states.

Author: Natalia Adrianna Potera

Japan prepares for next-generation war. Tokyo draws lessons from Ukraine

Japan’s latest defence policy places growing emphasis on the military challenge posed by China, North Korea and Russia. Tokyo is increasing defence expenditure while strengthening long-range strike, missile defence, cyber, space and unmanned capabilities.

The war in Ukraine has changed Japanese thinking about high-intensity conflict. Japan is preparing for prolonged warfare by expanding ammunition stocks, strengthening its defence industry and developing the SHIELD unmanned defence concept.

Author: Natalia Adrianna Potera

Will NATO attack targets inside Russia? The evolution of the doctrine

NATO’s evolving land warfare concepts emphasise forward defence and the need to prevent Russia from capturing any part of allied territory. The Alliance has significantly strengthened this approach since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

NATO planning increasingly assumes that conventional counter-strikes against military targets and logistics inside Russia could form part of a defensive campaign. Long-range drones and autonomous systems are also gaining importance.

Author: Michał Górski

Berlin to invest €12 billion in long-range missile arsenal

Germany plans to invest nearly €12 billion in long-range strike capabilities able to hit command centres, airfields, missile launchers and logistics hubs far behind enemy lines.

Berlin’s plans include mass-produced cruise missiles, US Tomahawks and Typhon launchers, as well as future British-German stealth and hypersonic weapons with ranges exceeding 2,000 kilometres.

Author: Jakub Bielamowicz

Boeing to deliver F-15EX jets: Poland included in deal

Poland appeared among potential foreign customers covered by a major US framework contract for Boeing F-15EX Eagle II combat aircraft. The broader agreement is valued at more than $131 billion.

Poland’s inclusion does not mean Warsaw has ordered the aircraft. The Polish Ministry of National Defence confirmed that the Armed Forces currently have no plans to acquire the F-15EX.

Author: Antoni Walkowski

Active deterrence doctrine: A new NATO strategy against hybrid threats

European NATO countries face an increasing number of Russian activities conducted below the threshold of conventional war, including sabotage, cyberattacks, espionage, disinformation and pressure on critical infrastructure.

The key challenge is developing deterrence mechanisms that allow NATO countries to respond before hybrid operations escalate into an open military confrontation. The eastern flank has experienced a particularly sharp increase in such incidents since 2022.

Author: Amelia Wojciechowska

Germany opens drone defence lab amid Leipzig attack plot

Germany has opened a new Technology Centre for Drone Security to test counter-UAV systems under realistic conditions. The facility will connect researchers, security agencies and manufacturers.

The move coincides with an investigation into drones discovered near Leipzig/Halle Airport, including one reportedly carrying explosives. German authorities suspect possible Russian intelligence involvement, although no formal attribution has yet been made.

Author: Jakub Bielamowicz

Will India soon become the world’s third power?

India is approaching Germany in nominal GDP and is likely to become the world’s third-largest economy. Its huge population, rapid economic growth, nuclear arsenal, expanding navy and increasingly assertive foreign policy strengthen New Delhi’s international position.

However, India still faces major challenges involving infrastructure, education, living standards, pollution and state capacity. Its rise therefore depends on whether economic potential can be translated into sustained technological, military and political power.

Author: Adam Burakowski

Russia’s plan to sabotage European weapon factories

Russia is reportedly seeking to recruit members of European criminal networks to conduct sabotage against defence companies and facilities supplying Ukraine.

Using local criminals and proxies allows Moscow to reduce costs, complicate attribution and keep individual attacks below the threshold that could trigger a major NATO response. Similar incidents have been investigated across several European countries.

Author: Patryk Jagnieża

Russia warns of strikes on British military targets

Russia has threatened possible strikes against British military targets inside Ukraine and potentially beyond Ukrainian territory in response to London’s support for Kyiv.

Moscow specifically criticised British and French assistance with long-range missile capabilities. The warning followed reports concerning the transfer of technology connected with Storm Shadow cruise missiles.

Author: Patryk Jagnieża

The midterm spectre: American foreign policy after November 2026

The US midterm elections could produce a divided Congress, with Democrats potentially controlling the House while Republicans retain the Senate. Such an outcome could restrict President Donald Trump’s domestic agenda.

Foreign policy could consequently become an area where the White House retains greater freedom of action. Europe should not expect the elections alone to reverse the broader American pressure for Europeans to assume more responsibility for their own security.

Author: Karolina Kisiel

Safety, energy, and digitalisation. Defence24 in Karpacz

Defence24 Group will create its own discussion space during the XXXV Economic Forum in Karpacz on 8–10 September. The programme will focus on security, energy transition, digitalisation, artificial intelligence and critical infrastructure.

More than 6,000 participants and over 500 debates and events are expected. Defence24’s presence will underline the growing interdependence between military security, economic resilience, energy and new technologies.

Author: Piotr Pilewski, Aleksander Olech

Ukrainian fighter jet flew over Poland

A Ukrainian fighter aircraft, most likely an F-16, crossed Polish airspace while flying from Ukraine towards Denmark. The aircraft travelled at around 9,000 metres before heading towards Vojens Air Base.

The fighter was probably one of the former Danish F-16s transferred to Ukraine. The reason for its return to Denmark was not disclosed, although inspection or maintenance was identified as a possible explanation.

Author: Mariusz Marszałkowski

300,000 anti-tank barricades are heading east. MOD is fortifying the border

Poland is rapidly expanding fortifications on its eastern and northern borders under the East Shield programme. Nearly 300,000 concrete anti-tank obstacles are expected to be transported to the region by mid-October.

The Ministry of National Defence says work has already covered around 100 kilometres of sensitive border sections, with more than 200 kilometres expected to be secured by the end of 2026. Road and railway crossings are also being prepared for rapid blocking.

Author: Jędrzej Graf