East Front News #116: NATO will cut Russia off from the Baltic and Starlink terminals are back in operation

NATO will cut Russia off from the Baltic. We are talking about hours

Estonia says NATO could close Russia’s access to the Baltic Sea through the Gulf of Finland within hours if Moscow attacked an Alliance member. Finland and Estonia’s NATO membership has fundamentally altered the military balance in the region. 

Such a move would threaten one of Russia’s most important maritime routes, linking St Petersburg with the Baltic and supporting access to Kaliningrad. For Poland, this is increasingly becoming part of real operational planning rather than political rhetoric. 

Author: Aleksander Olech

Finnish intelligence will be able to strike on Russian territory

Finland is preparing to significantly expand the powers of its military intelligence, including the ability to disrupt or modify hostile information systems located outside Finnish territory. 

In practice, this could allow offensive cyber and intelligence activities against infrastructure inside Russia. Helsinki is increasingly adopting the principle that a threat does not necessarily have to be stopped only after it crosses the Finnish border. 

Author: Aleksander Olech

Sweden will strengthen NATO's deterrence. Poland will benefit

Sweden plans to maintain substantial forces available for NATO missions in 2027, including up to 3,900 personnel in the land domain as well as naval, air and special forces assets. 

Poland features prominently in Stockholm’s plans. Swedish Patriot systems are expected to continue protecting the logistics hub supporting Ukraine, while Sweden also signals potential participation in NATO land forces deployed in Poland. 

Authors: Michał Górski, Aleksander Olech

Starlink terminals are back in operation. Unofficial confirmation from Kyiv

Ukraine has reportedly restored the operation of StarShield terminals after restrictions disrupted connectivity on fast-moving platforms used by the Ukrainian military. 

The disruption affected, among other systems, interceptor drones operating against new Russian jet-powered UAVs. The incident again demonstrated how dependent important Ukrainian battlefield capabilities remain on SpaceX infrastructure and US decisions. 

Author: Bartłomiej Wypartowicz

Two ships sunk. Bulgaria turns to NATO for drone defence

Bulgaria has decided to join a NATO counter-drone initiative after attacks resulted in two cargo ships being sunk off its Black Sea coast within a week. 

Sofia had previously questioned the cost and usefulness of the programme. The attacks changed that calculation, underscoring the growing drone threat to commercial shipping and infrastructure in the Black Sea. 

Author: Jakub Bielamowicz

The US proposes unfreezing some Russian assets. Europe reacts

The United States has proposed that part of Russia’s frozen assets could be released and placed under US supervision as an incentive for Moscow to return to negotiations over Ukraine. 

European governments rejected the idea, opposing both the transfer of control over the funds to Washington and any possible return of frozen assets to Russia. Around €260 billion in Russian state assets remain frozen in Western jurisdictions. 

Author: Artur Marciniak

Russia isn't able to build a super bomber. There's a new missile instead

Russia is struggling to field a new generation of strategic bombers and is instead placing greater emphasis on modernising the weapons carried by its existing aircraft. 

A RUSI assessment indicates that new missile programmes are increasingly compensating for Moscow’s inability to rapidly introduce a successor to its ageing strategic aviation platforms. 

Author: Maciej Szopa

Mobilisation of forces in Belarus. Soldiers, military equipment, and drones on standby

Belarus is hosting major CSTO exercises involving around 1,500 troops, more than 300 pieces of military equipment and approximately 80 drones. Russia is among the participating states. 

The exercises coincide with NATO’s Steadfast Noon nuclear deterrence manoeuvres. Minsk and Moscow are presenting their activities as a response to the deteriorating security situation around the CSTO area. 

Authors: Mateusz Saweczko, Patryk Jagnieża

More ships were attacked near the Bulgarian coast. What about the crew?

Further drone attacks have targeted civilian merchant vessels close to Bulgaria. One ship was damaged and another reportedly sank around 17 nautical miles from the Bulgarian coast. 

The incidents follow earlier attacks on vessels in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone and further demonstrate that the war-related drone threat is spreading across the Black Sea. 

Author: Wojciech Kozioł

"It wasn't a Russian provocation." Polish minister on the drone at the beach in Karwia

The mysterious drone found on a beach in Karwia was not Russian. Poland’s Defence Minister confirmed that it was a Polish UAV destroyed during earlier counter-drone trials near Ustka. 

The incident nevertheless coincided with a broader Polish review of drones, counter-drone systems, low-cost long-range precision weapons and artificial intelligence. The government also intends to significantly expand drone training. 

Author: Michał Górski

Poland's Minister of National Defence announces a "small strategic review"

Poland will conduct an accelerated review of its most urgent military procurement requirements. Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz has also called on other NATO members to conduct similar assessments. 

Warsaw wants investment to focus on the capabilities most relevant to the changing battlefield while also expanding European defence production and reducing strategic dependence on Asian supply chains. 

Author: Wojciech Kozioł

Major drop in Russian bot traffic. Successful Ukrainian strike

Ukrainian drone attacks temporarily disrupted data centres operated by Russian internet giant Yandex, producing a dramatic decline in some categories of automated internet traffic. 

The strike did not eliminate Russian influence operations or propaganda, but it demonstrated the vulnerability of Russian digital infrastructure to Ukrainian long-range attacks. 

Author: Szymon Palczewski

Billion-dollar deals in Athens and F-35s for Lisbon. Rubio's mission

Marco Rubio’s European tour produced major defence announcements, including around $4 billion in US-Greek agreements covering F-16 modernisation and aviation weaponry. 

Portugal is meanwhile considering the F-35 as a replacement for its F-16 fleet. Washington is using defence cooperation and aircraft sales as part of a broader effort to reinforce relationships with European NATO allies. 

Author: Michał Górski

Russia targets Danish arms industry. Authorities uncover sabotage

Danish intelligence says Russia is conducting sabotage operations against companies involved in producing weapons and equipment for Ukraine. 

Moscow is reportedly shifting from broader destabilisation towards targets where physical damage could directly restrict military deliveries. Operatives recruited through messaging platforms are used for reconnaissance and potentially sabotage. 

Author: Jakub Radaszkiewicz