East Front News #115: Russian military flights over Poland and Sweden sends Patriots

The aircraft took off from Moscow and flew into Poland. Where did it go?

An Algerian Air Force C-130H Hercules flew from Moscow through Belarus and Polish airspace before continuing towards Algeria. The flight is part of a growing pattern of military transport between Russia and Algeria.

The route raises questions for Poland because aircraft supporting Russian-Algerian military cooperation are regularly using NATO airspace. Such flights may also be connected with Russia’s wider military logistics network across Africa.

Authors: Aleksander Olech, Mateusz Saweczko

From drone strikes to sabotage: Russia targets the rail corridor linking Ukraine and Poland

Russia is targeting the transport network connecting Ukraine with Poland using different methods on each side of the border. In Ukraine, Moscow relies on drones and missiles; in Poland, it uses reconnaissance, recruited proxies, sabotage and information operations.

The Polish-Ukrainian railway corridor remains crucial for military, humanitarian and civilian transport. Protecting it requires closer intelligence cooperation, better infrastructure security and faster disruption of Russian recruitment networks.

Authors: Aleksander Olech, Paweł Makowiec

Polish deputy minister talks about tests of new drones. Will they reach Moscow?

Poland has tested domestically developed strike drones over distances of around 1,000 kilometres. The military deliberately exposed the systems to electronic interference to assess their real combat value.

Deputy Defence Minister Cezary Tomczyk described the results as highly promising when asked whether the systems could reach Moscow. The tests are part of Poland’s Deep Precision Strike programme.

Author: Wojciech Kozioł

Sweden sends Patriots to Poland. They will defend the eastern flank

Sweden will deploy Patriot air-defence systems and approximately 100 soldiers to Poland. Their principal mission will be to protect the NATO logistics hub supporting Ukraine.

The Swedish contingent is expected to operate in the Rzeszów area from December for up to seven months. Swedish Gripen fighters are already participating in the protection of Polish airspace.

Author: Patryk Jagnieża

The EU is preparing for hybrid attacks with fatalities. What about NATO?

EU governments are holding confidential discussions on how to respond if Russian hybrid operations cause fatalities inside the Union. Recent incidents involving drones, fires and attempted sabotage have increased the urgency of the debate.

The discussions also expose an unresolved question over responsibilities between NATO and the EU. NATO could focus on intelligence and deterrence, while the Union would manage civilian crisis response and economic measures.

Author: Patryk Jagnieża

Europe's defence readiness. Is 2030 impossible to achieve?

EU Defence Commissioner Andrius Kubilius warns that Europe is rearming too slowly to achieve sufficient readiness to deter or defend against Russia by 2030. The current pace of investment and capability development remains insufficient.

Brussels is considering new mechanisms to strengthen Europe’s security architecture, including closer cooperation with the United Kingdom, Norway, Canada and Ukraine. The objective is to translate higher defence spending into actual military capability.

Author: Michał Górski

France promised a war economy. CAESAR ammunition still depends on one fragile forge

France’s 155 mm artillery ammunition supply chain still depends heavily on Forges de Tarbes, the country’s only forge capable of producing large shell bodies at scale. Equipment failures, financial difficulties and ownership uncertainty have exposed a major industrial vulnerability.

The case highlights the gap between France’s rhetoric about a „war economy” and the industrial depth required for a prolonged conflict. Germany and Poland are simultaneously expanding additional ammunition-production capacity.

Author: Aleksander Olech

A new Apache base in Poland? MoD announcement

The Polish Ministry of National Defence is preparing new military units in the Lublin region, and Świdnik is expected to play a major role in the future deployment of AH-64E Apache helicopters.

Poland has ordered 96 Apache Guardians. The planned fleet is expected to operate from Inowrocław, Malbork and a newly established unit near Lublin.

Author: Jakub Palowski

Rubio: Conflict in Ukraine could spread to other countries

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has warned that the war in Ukraine could escalate and spill into neighbouring countries if diplomatic efforts remain stalled. Washington is particularly concerned about an incident or sabotage operation triggering uncontrolled escalation.

Rubio described negotiations as deadlocked, with the future status of the Donbas remaining one of the main obstacles to an agreement between Ukraine and Russia.

Author: Michał Górski

French nuclear deterrence works. Macron observed a ballistic missile test

President Emmanuel Macron observed the first successful launch of the new M51.3 ballistic missile from a submerged French strategic nuclear submarine. The test warhead reached its designated area in the North Atlantic.

France is simultaneously modernising its submarine-based and air-launched nuclear forces. The M51.3 and future third-generation strategic submarines are intended to preserve the credibility of French deterrence for decades.

Author: Jarosław Ciślak

Polish Piorun missile tested on French Mistral ship

The Polish Piorun surface-to-air missile has been successfully tested for integration with the Rampart launcher aboard a French Mistral-class amphibious assault ship.

The trials verified the integration of the missile and launcher as well as the functioning of key missile components. The project could create new opportunities for Polish air-defence technology in the naval market.

Author: Jakub Palowski

The Pentagon is preparing strikes on Iran. Tehran is stepping up attacks on ships

The Pentagon has instructed US Central Command to complete preparations for a potential new campaign against Iran. Options range from limited strikes to attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure and nuclear facilities.

The preparations coincide with an increase in Iranian attacks on shipping around the Strait of Hormuz. Any renewed US operation could trigger retaliation, threaten American forces and further increase pressure on global energy markets.

Author: Jakub Radaszkiewicz

Is Russia replenishing its losses? New frontline bombers have been delivered

Russian industry has delivered another batch of Su-34 frontline bombers to the Russian Air Force. It is only the second known delivery of the aircraft in 2026.

Production appears barely sufficient to compensate for losses, with at least four Su-34s estimated to have been irretrievably lost this year. Russian deliveries are also affected by an export contract for Algeria.

Author: Maciej Szopa

The US Army is gearing up against drones. The first vehicles with active protection have been received

The US Army has received its first M2A4E infantry fighting vehicles and M7A4E1 reconnaissance vehicles equipped with the Iron Fist active protection system.

The system is designed to counter anti-tank missiles, rocket-propelled grenades, loitering munitions and FPV drones. The deployment reflects the growing importance of active protection against unmanned threats on modern battlefields.

Author: Damian Ratka

How can Saudi Arabia defend itself? Freedom of action at stake

Saudi Arabia’s ability to sustain operations in Yemen depends heavily on protecting its territory and critical infrastructure against missiles and drones. Patriot and THAAD form the core of Riyadh’s layered missile-defence system.

The strategic challenge is not simply intercepting individual threats but maintaining surveillance, ammunition stocks, repair capacity and economic resilience during a prolonged campaign. Allied support remains another important factor.

Author: Patryk Radke